Climate: Is the past the key to the future?

The climate of the Holocene is not well suited to be the baseline for the climate of the planet. It is an interglacial, a state typical of only 10% of the past few million years. It is a time of relative sea-level stability after a rapid 130-m rise from the lowstand during the last glacial maximum. Physical geologic processes are operating at unusual rates and much of the geochemical system is not in a steady state. During most of the Phanerozoic there have been no continental ice sheets on the earth, and the planet’s meridional temperature gradient has been much less than it is presently. Major factors influencing climate are insolation, greenhouse gases, paleogeography, and vegetation; the first two are discussed in this paper. Changes in the earth’s orbital parameters affect the amount of radiation received from the sun at different latitudes over the course of the year. During the last climate cycle, the waxing and waning of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets closely followed the changes in summer insolation at the latitude of the northern hemisphere polar circle. The overall intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere is governed by the precession of the earth’s axis of rotation, and the precession and ellipticity of the earth’s orbit. At the polar circle a meridional